walneria Tyrámen Stock Exchange to lower Velaherian rating

[Walneria]

Note: The following posts shows the chronological order of messages as they appeared in the RNTV (Walnerian National TV):

January 11, 2022

18:00

The Walnerian Central Bank recommended to the Tyrámen Stock Exchange lowering of the reliability and safety of investment grades for Velaheria and Stedoria over the possible side effects which the recent decision to deploy Velaherian army against the local populace on a border region in cooperation with Stedoria.

19:30

The Tyrámen Stock Exchange announced pre-emptive lowering of @Stedoria and @DPR Velaheria's safety of investment score to "F", approved by a majority of 9 out of 15 directors from the board, and announced 15 minutes before closing. It is expected that multiple investors may withdraw valuable assets from Velaherian markets when the stock opens at 8:30 the next day.

The scale goes from AAA to FFF, with the steps being most commonly defined as:

AAA - Safest investment in this remedy, you may not consider cautions beside those of the nature of your investment
AA - Safe investment in this remedy, potential risks are minimal and may be effectively ignored
A - Safe investment. Despite dangers, on the longer scale, investment returns are almost guaranteed to return
B - Relatively safe investment, though possible future change may threaten the stability
C - Medium danger investment. The benefits are thought to outweigh the negatives, but the situation may change with little notice
D - Fluctuating danger. It is hard to predict the danger of development and as such any investment should be taken with caution
E - Fluctuating danger with a serious possibility of the loss of not only the gains, but also the initial investment in a small span of time
F - Dangerous investment. It is discouraged for investors to invest into the remedy of this rank for the threat of an imminent loss
FF - Very dangerous investment. Any investment to this rank is in serious threat of being lost overnight
FFF - Extremely dangerous investment. Any investment to this rank should be considered to be effectively lost

January 12, 2022

8:30

The Walnerian Stock Exchange opens. In the first 15 minutes, over twenty representatives of companies with over Ԟ100M showed up to withdraw between 25 and 85 per cent of their invested assets from Velaheria and Stedoria.

9:45

A snap report from the Analytics Team of the WSE shows, that from 8:30, the value of Walnerian-owned assets dropped by 12.57%, the most drastic change ever since the 2003

12:00

The number of stocks related to Velaheria dropped on average by 17.55% and those to Stedoria by 9.43% relative to their value on yesterday's noon.

17:35

Analytical specialist Filip Rósënblúm warned on the national TV from a possible devaluing cycle over the recent drops and urges investors to act rationally for the values to partially recover. However, more and more major companies announce their intentions to withdraw their assets from investment zones of Velaheria. The excepted loss may be in the double-digit percentile, possibly between 35 and 55 per cent of Walnerian investment withdrawn by Friday's closure of the Tyrámen Stock Exchange.

[DPR Velaheria]

After the Walnerian Central Bank owned and operated by the Government of @Walneria , recommended the Týrámen stock exchange to lower the ratings of the velaherian investment safety to an "F" and several companies subsequently withdrew their investments in major private and state owned sectors, the Velaherian Central Bank has issued an investigation checking the legitimacy of the lowering of the status of safety on investments. 

After a detailed discussion the Velaherian central bank has issued the bastarian stock exchange to issue some penalties on the walnerian investors who withdrew their investments from the velaherian stock market after the lowering of ratings.

 January 13, 2022

After the withdrawal of the investments and the seemingly biased lowering of safety of investments ratings by the Týrámen Stock exchange, The Bastarian stock exchange has issued penalties on investors who withdrew their assets from the Bastarian stock exchange, who would have their obtainable amounts of shares capped by the Velaherian stock exchange as a result of their illegal withdrawals after the lowering of ratings and the damages that has caused to the velaherian stock market and the financial apparatus of the state. 

The Velaherian Central bank further has issued an lowering of the credibility of walnerian investors and stock market analysists and as a result has stated that if they ever loan any sum or do any financial transactions with the Velaherian Central bank then, they would have to give greater amounts of taxes to the Velaherian government as a result of the recent decisions taken by the Central bank regarding the issue.

Edited January 17 by DPR Velaheria (see edit history)

[Seylos]

"What the fuck?" Minister McPhearson asked, his anger barely contained.

"The Walnerian government lowered their ratings..." an aide said tryign to explain again to the minister.

"Christ yes I know that. But what the fuck were they thinking? There's no economic reason for any of this bullshit."

The Deputy Minister of Trade, Sean Fearghas, had decided to make his appearance after McPhearson's outburst, "No... there isn't any reason for this. Except political."

Fearghas dropped a file in front of McPhearson, who quickly snatched it up and poured over the contents. He slammed the file down again staring up at Fearghas, "They decided to throw the entire region into economic uncertainty over a border conflict!? Jesus, not even a conflict the Walnerians are a part of, a matter between the Velharians and the Stedorians."

"Looks like that's the case. The real question is what we do from here. The local economic climate is in turmoil, investors are going every which way in the wind. What confuses them more is that Seylos hasn't made ratings adjustments in accordance with the Walnerians."

McPhearson threw up his arms, "And we bloody well won't! Nothing had changed! And now they've forced us into a corner without even bloody thinking about it."

Fearghas put his hand to his head, finally bringing it down, "So we don't have a choice then in this matter?"

"No," McPhearson replied his voice lower but still as angry, "We have to put Walneria on the list of nations who participate in active market manipulation. This isn't going to end well for anyone."

 

[Stedoria]

Tamäj Köseg - Chief Consul of Stedoria
Zidôre-Vinçant Bonapåre - Stedorian Minister of Economics and Development

————— January 21st, 2022 (21.01.2022) —————

"Citizen Bonapåre."

"Citizen Köseg." Zidôre responded.

"I'm sure as you've already heard given the recent economic stir it caused, but Walneria's stock exchange has, in its apparent economic wisdom, downgraded Stedoria's economic safety rating to an 'F' in response to our announced actions against the terrorists, who, might I add, Walneria supports." Tamäj said, the annoyance in his voice clearly visible.

After the Walnerian stock exchange's downgrade, a small amount of economic turmoil had been created due to the withdrawal of assets by panicked Walnerian investors; Stedoria was slightly luckier than Velaheria, however, which had received the brunt of the economic damage, and thus had much more to lose. Despite Stedoria's luck in escaping higher economic loss than Velaheria, damage so soon before the in the midst of the election season was bound to affect the results of the election to some degree.

"Yes, Citizen Köseg, I've heard. However, I can assure you that the damage is indeed minimal, and we're already in the process of planning alleviation of the damage. For now, we've decided against any nationalisations or expropriations currently in order to calm investors. Furthermore, I believe it would be in our economic interests to close ourselves further with our fellow members of the ICEB so that we can attract more investors—be they state or private, with more friendly nations." Zidôre replied, his tone of voice suggesting a more optimistic outlook.

"Indeed. Whilst normally I'd support more aggressive economic retaliation against these parasitic entities, it appears that that isn't currently feasible. This, Citizen Bonapåre, is why the market is so unscrupulous; it thrives on parasitism—parasitism keeps people, enterprises, even nations, hostage with investments—it punishes people who act in favour of their nation and fellow man. We have acted in favour of our nation by planning to strike a blow at the terrorists, and in turn have been punished for it. What are we supposed to do, allow these terrorists to run amok, wreaking havoc on the countryside? This is going to cost us when the citizens go to the polls—we're still going to win, of course, but we cannot allow the opposition to grow. Please, prepare a statement to send to RTS—this should calm down the Walnerian investors somewhat, and we could win back some of the citizens’ votes. We shall reciprocate when the proper time comes."

Edited May 5 by Stedoria (see edit history)

[Iverica]

January 12-14, 2022

Iberic Banks and Equity firms had been one of the first to note the suspicious rating action. Both state banking and corporate entities often used web crawlers and data vendors to supply their Nowcast Analysts with information. Within hours of the news release, Iberic financials were abuzz and busy drafting contributor analysis of the situation and investment theses to justify would essentially be a snap-up of Velaherian shares which were now just floating in the wind and were dropping in value. And dropping fast.

The first alert had come from the data farming bots of Gyges Data Solutions and Palantira Innovations who recorded the open-source announcement of the ratings drop, the change in rating on platforms subscribed to Walnerian Stock Exchange ratings indices, and tracked the volume and transaction details from a Velaherian-Iberic brokerage entity which was required by law to file its data on open-source record with the Iverican Office of Securities and Exchange. News spread quickly.

Companies providing investment analysis were often subscribed to Gyges' product, Market Quotient and Palantira's Orb application. Silberman-Saxen and Estandard ét Paupre Glubal (E&P) were among the first to put out analyses to their clients the following day. Investment firms like Sant Ruis Venture & Equity, Magellan Venture & Equity Inc. and the Sternguard Group were among the first to act, immediately contacting their Velaherian based brokers to get ready. Capital flowed to broker accounts or transaction accounts licensed for Foreign Direct Investment. Traders' fingers were all but hovering over a buy order. Most held off waiting for the price to dip further before beginning a steady, averaged buy-in of as many shares as they could eat up before the wurld woke up to the opportunity. They would likely start their averaged buy-out within a week, with automated buy-orders ready to go once the close price was near a 52-week low.

Iberic financials at this point in time were pretty much flush with capital since most completed an early close of all Sunset Sea Islandian positions. Dry Powder was high and a lot of capital was in liquid or easily liquidated options at the moment. It would be a feeding frenzy. 

What made the opportunity so perfect was the fact that in the eyes of many foreign ratings providers, the change in (what was presumably) a short-term sovereign risk rating appeared to be arbitrary with an extremely high chance of authorities classifying it as suspicious or at least something worth investigation. A Velaherian border security deployment had been cited as the a key factor in the lowering of the Walnerian rating. Financially, this didn't appear to be a pose a risk to the Velaherian economy. The state would still likely be able to pay back its obligations after this and industries would likely remain unaffected. From the outsider's view, the lowered rating was punitive and didn't prove an increase in risk in Velaherian investments. Risk was relatively low for this class of stock and the price was dropping below the pegged value, creating a great opening to get in. There was also the off chance that buy-backs for the Walnerians would be suspended because of how suspicious a move to mass buy back stock in the next few weeks would be. Whether intended or not, there was a resemblance to short-selling that highly-regulated markets tended to be wary off. Though that was only an off-chance. It was quite possible that the Velaherians would do nothing at all, meaning only that Iberic traders would have to buy sooner.

Given the 10-year trends, buying into the undervalued stock would secure a hefty profit from a good long-position started during this downturn.

 

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OOC: Kudos to Walneria for having this idea and starting a hot way to RP economic action. Hope we have more of these.

Just to have it on here, I've been pretty public about my interpretation of these events from an IC perspective. On discord, I've long ago secured permission from Velaheria to buy in (literally: OOC secured on 1/13/2022). The buyer during the Walnerian sell off was never defined, so it goes back to the most probable: sold back to to Velaherian entities, exchange, banks, or the issuer. Therefore, Velaheria's shares after they are sold. Iberics would then buy-in via broker or via FDI options available between governments. Velaheria and Iverica are engaged in trade so this would be precedented.

The basis of the most Iberic investment theses is theory that the ST Rating change is not backed by any evidence of increased risk in Velaheria. In addition, Velaheria's economic trajectory has been mostly positive. Given the growth they are/will be experiencing, the idea is that Velaherian stocks are already decent investments for their class and are made all the more attractive by the dump in value creating a very cushy entry point which would minimise risks to investors entering during the dump by a nice margin. TLDR: Iberics do not see any evident risk in the rating, therefore making a viable stock attractive to buy because of what looks like a short term market scare.

 

[Walneria]

After multiple weeks of observation and exchange measurement, Walnerian Central Bank decided to advice the Tyrámen Stock Exchange to increase @DPR Velaheria's and @Stedoria's rating to "D", given the stock exchange marked stabilised and relative threat remained in acceptable levels.

"The scenarios on the possibility of endangerement of stocks in Velaheria and Stedoria were proven mostly incorrect", commented TSE speaker, "Our government as well as our companies do not wish to hurt the investors nor foreign economies, our own actions are done only to provide security to our investors and to the citizens of Walneria. Now, that the situation stabilized and the trade proved to be still somewhat viable, we have decided, that a preliminary rising of the rating to a "D" grade is reasonable." He also added: "If this decision proves to improve the trade, it is more than likely, that the decision will be made in the future to improve the rating even further in the future, returning it to a "C" rating that came to be before the whole incident."

OOC: I have actually planned this to be done shorter, but given the actual facts and happenings in the wurld right now, I have realized that some organizations are more sluggish than I expected.