Request: Economic Expansion Seylos

[Seylos]

Seylos had undergone a lot in the past several years and I think it it time to request an economic expansion to accommodate that. But more importantly establish what we are all feeling about economic expansions.

Currently Seylos stands at a GDP of $1.35 trillion with a GDP per capita of $38,362.

• In 2020 the creation of the North Adlantic Union which not only created a single market zone for several Ceriser states and Seylos but created a European Union like organization to administer it.
• In 2021 the creation of the Eastern Argis Trade Zone with @Delamaria, @Fravina, and @Galahinda which facilitated free trade between 4 economically healthy Argic powers.
• Continued Ceriser investment after the defeat of the Sentists, which has led to market growth in both Ceris and Seylos.
• Acknowledgement of the economic implications of the loss of trade to the Sunset Sea Islands.
• Continued expansion of relations between Seylos and @Tagmatium Rules as a (very gradual) replacement for trade from @Great Anglia
• Massive immigration from Ceriser nations from the Sentist War, Cussia after the takeover from @Haruspex, and from Sitallo ( @Metztlitlaca) following the military complications there.
• Also I have not changed my GDP since 2018 when Eire was brought into the fold, so its been a long time since this has been adjusted.

Plesae note that the above is the list of economic circumstances leading to this request, not all framed necessarily as positives.

I'd like to ask for an increase of GDP from these events in total as well as probe the community as what they believe is fair for Seylosian growth. I understand right now growth is a bit nebulous so I'd love to see suggestions on what this might look like.

[Tagmatium Rules]

5 hours ago, Seylos said:

Seylos had undergone a lot in the past several years and I think it it time to request an economic expansion to accommodate that. But more importantly establish what we are all feeling about economic expansions.

Currently Seylos stands at a GDP of $1.35 trillion with a GDP per capita of $38,362.

1. In 2020 the creation of the North Adlantic Union which not only created a single market zone for several Ceriser states and Seylos but created a European Union like organization to administer it.
2. In 2021 the creation of the Eastern Argis Trade Zone with @Delamaria, @Fravina, and @Galahinda which facilitated free trade between 4 economically healthy Argic powers.
3. Continued Ceriser investment after the defeat of the Sentists, which has led to market growth in both Ceris and Seylos.
4. Acknowledgement of the economic implications of the loss of trade to the Sunset Sea Islands.
5. Continued expansion of relations between Seylos and @Tagmatium Rules as a (very gradual) replacement for trade from @Great Anglia
6. Massive immigration from Ceriser nations from the Sentist War, Cussia after the takeover from @Haruspex, and from Sitallo ( @Metztlitlaca) following the military complications there.

I'd like to ask for an increase of GDP from these events in total as well as probe the community as what they believe is fair for Seylosian growth. I understand right now growth is a bit nebulous so I'd love to see suggestions on what this might look like.

I'm going to point out that I'm kind of saying the opposite in some ways - that Haru/Anglian actions in the Raga Sea and Corinium Crisis have negatively affected my nation's trade with Argis. Those parts are significantly more chaotic that they were a year ago, especially as MH, a virtual rogue state, is now touting how it's giving its puppet state subs.

Shipping companies are likely going to be edgy about going through those areas. I've now got more navy ships in those areas to assure my shipping companies of the stability.

These two events would have had a significant economic impact on Tagmatium, especially since my nation is trying to build better relationships with New Wurld nations. Whilst the Greater Holy Empire will probably see economic growth this year, it will be nowhere near what was hoped, primarily due to the actions of its ally and neighbour.

Equally, does massive immigration lead to economic growth in the short term? It might also lead to short term cultural integration problems.

[Iverica]

For the record: Comments on DM.

[Orioni]

On 11/12/2021 at 3:30 AM, Seylos said:

Massive immigration from Ceriser nations from the Sentist War, Cussia after the takeover from @Haruspex, and from Sitallo ( @Metztlitlaca) following the military complications there.

This element of economic impact might also have some downsides. A large influx of new people may not immediately lead to new, high-paying jobs. It depends on whether these people have their degree recognise across the NAU, or not. Also, since it involves a diaspora, they may send a (large?) share of their income back to the homeland, to help with the reconstruction.

Reviewing the other bullet points on your list, it might help if you considered and perhaps estimate the positive or negative effects of each element. Here is an attempt. This needs more nuance.

1. + NAU single market created. ➡️ More trade, less overhead costs, but also less tax income via tariffs.
2. + EATZ created. ➡️ More trade.
3. + Investment in Ceris reconstruction. ➡️ More exports for Seylos.
4. - Loss of trade to the Sunset Sea Islands. ➡️ Less trade.
5. ± Better relations with Tagmatium to replace Great Anglia. ➡️ Do these cancel each other out?
6. ± Immigration from Ceris, Cussia, and Sitallo. ➡️ Figure out whether this is a net-positive or not.
7. + Addition of Eire since 2018. ➡️ Make sure this isn't counted twice with the NAU single market mentioned above.

[Salvia]

This all makes sense to me. Although I'd look to point out Anglian War would certainly have an impact, even if Europa isn't your major trading partner, some nations that are (Tagmatium, which you've already included, but others as well such as Orioni, Adaptus, etc.) are probably seeing rising costs and are passing it on to the New Wurld to cut losses.

iirc average GDP growth for a stable, normal year would be like ~2.5%, roughly. Good year would be closer to ~4.5-5%. If this was me and I was trying to get a new number to put on the wiki or whatever, I'd do 3.5% increase of real GDP for each year since the $1.35 trillion figure was made. Doing this, I got $1.505 trillion for 2021 and and $1.561 for 2022, which seems reasonable to me. Again, this is just a suggestion, but overall I do agree with the idea that Seylosian economic growth would be more than what it would be during a stable, normal year  

EDIT: You could argue these numbers are a bit low, as well.

Edited November 24, 2021 by Salvia (see edit history)