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[OOC] Cussian Humanitarian Coalition


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References (in order of appearance):

This OOC Planning will service the upcoming "Cussian Humanitarian Coalition" RP which will be posted on the "Affairs" subforum. Questions and inquiries may be posted here.

Note that direct involvement with the Coalition must be vetted and confirmed before any IC accepted posts can be made. Indirect involvement for ease of posting may be made through donations or passive aid (e.g asylum pledge, funding, material donation).

Once this RP is launched, it will proceed as planned regardless of any late joining parties.

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The action plan draft as of now:

 

Revised Draft PHASE 1

Goal: Evacuate as many persecuted Christians from the Cussian region as possible.

Objectives

    1. Secure terms of evacuation with MH (Before All Else)
    2. Send observers, get statistics
    3. Secure investors from NGOs, governments and private citizens
    4. Assemble evacuation force (civilian vessels, aircraft, staff)
    5. Request pledges from charitable nations for asylum
    6. Use Evacuation forces to transport Cussian refugees to designated asylum areas.

Scope

    • Scale: Evacuation of refugees numbering as little as 50,000 to as many as 100,000-200,000
    • Duration: 1-2 months IC (action plan Phase 1 only)

Notable Caveats

    • TERMS-This entire plans relies on terms being met with MH gov first. No detailed announcements are to be made until this is secured.
    • DISPOSITION-Avoid any opportunity for provoking or engaging in combat with MH military personnel while the evacuation is underway. This operation OOC depends on smooth humanitarian action.
    • PLAN B-Depending on the number of refugees being evacuated, PHASE 2 must be ready to support an overwhelming amount of civilians--many of which may be unemployable or disabled.

Action Plan PHASE 1

    1. Terms reached with MH
        a. Must allow civil and military assets to onload refugees.
        b. Must be guaranteed safety by the MH gov and military forces.
        c. Must be permitted to retain basic security detail
        d. Must guarantee suitable berthing while at MH ports/airports
    2. Statistics confirmed
        a. Exact number of refugees confirmed
        b. Average age & sex confirmed
        c. Prioritise Women, Children, or Men with complete state documentation (Passport, Birth Certificate, etc.)
        d. Low Priority: Criminals
    3. Investors secured
        a. Private Citizens, Governments, Corporations
        b. To reduce strain on governments, attempt as much private donations as possible.
    4. Evac force assembled at Norfolk, Seylos. 
        a. Evac fleet will be mustered in groups. Composition: mixed civil liners and lightly armed military vessels.
            i. Task Group Tagmatium with minimal security detail
            ii. Task Group Haru with nominal security detail
        b. Consumable supplies must be maximised. Make use of donations.
        c. Task Groups will have a queueing procedure. Refugees will be profiled and documented prior to onload. Vessels must be ready to dock, onload, undock, and depart quickly.
    5. Evacuation Proper
        a. Group A "Haru"- must be evacuated directly from MH ports by boat or by plane if possible.
        b. Group B "Tagmatium"- any number that the Tagmatine Empire can receive temporarily for holding. If Tagmatium can host any number permanently, this group would be divided here.
        c. Groups will be sent to pre-determined nations that have pledged asylum. Each nation MUST provide exactly how many refugees it is willing to host.
    6. Excess/outlying Refugees
        a. Unaccommodated outliers will be sent to Iverica or Gallambria where they will be given a residency card and shipped to an undefined Terra Nullius area.
 

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Updates to come.

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A problem is that from an OOC standpoint, we don't have the actual numbers of possible refugees.

Beautancus' factbook states that the Christian sect makes up roughly 11% of the population. This is all the information that we have, as our use of population was significantly different back then. I'm not sure what numbers we might be considering as a rough figure for the total population  of Beautancus.

Possibly in the realms of 20 to 40 million, as it's a reasonably sized country that was relatively well developed before succumbing to the Great Europan Collapse?

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Since there is no exact data, I think the best way to get anywhere with a number might be with infering from his other statistics. Looking at that factbook, as @Tagmatium Rules pointed out 11% of the total population is the only solid number.

Here is a model I want to try out:

  • Using some qualitative data, use IRL analogues to create a reasonable estimate of what this 11% is approximately.
    • If we let the Variables be:
      • Military data- Beautancus has written that his economy "was and is designed to support and facilitate the growth and advancement of the national military machine".
        • This infers that any IRL analogue we look to must be at least in the list of largest militaries by total manpower.
        • Caveat: While Beautancus has written that his "Provincial Commands" has an average of 5,000,000 men--it is safe to disregard this in light of the new meta's focus on realism. Just having 5 provinces would give him a military with 25 million men--the largest military on Eurth by far.
      • Cultural/Geographic/Ethnographic similarities with an IRL analogue. This would be an important second variable because it is a good indicator of what IRL country Beautancus would most closely be patterned after. Noting also that Culture & Geography have much to do with determining poplation, size, its a variable we can't leave out. In this case, Beautancus mentions that the Cussian language is similar to Iranian. He also mentions bringing "Beautancus' culture and language more in line with its Iranian/Persian cultural under and overtones".
        • In this case, Iran seems to be the best comparison.
        • It might be argued that Beautancus cannot exactly be compared to Iran IRL because it obviously differs in history and recent governance. However, given the start similarities in geography (temperatures are comparable) and how topography might be equated (Iran is mountainous, with floodplains/marsh lands and with a desert; whereas Beautancus is a steppe country with notable mountains, marshes, and highlands) Iran is still the most similar out of all the steppe countries IRL.
    • Noting these variables, we can conclude that the best IRL reference point would be Iran. While not exact, the similarities are close enough.
      • Iran is the 19th most populous country in the world as of this list--fitting in nicely with Beautancus saying there was a "recent population boom" as of 2007 and that his economy was focused on growing the military.
      • Iran also fits the above condition requiring Beautancus' IRL analogue to have a large military. Iran has the 10th largest military by total manpower according to this list. Given this fact, Iran as a IRL analogue also satisfies the condition stated in the factbook that the Cussian economy was "focused on growing the military".
    • If we accept Iran as the most realistic IRL analogue, we could then assume that the population would be approx. equal to Iran's current 82.9 Million.
      • 11% of 82.9 Million would be 9.1 Million.
      • Therefore, this model would assume that the maximum number of Cussian Christians in Beautancus at this time is 9.1 Million.
      • Should we choose to factor any mitigators like the Great Europan Collapse or fill in any of Beautancus' recent history, this number may be modified.

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Well, that's my best shot at trying to find a reasonable solution to a problem that can't really be authenticated. Given his absence, other methods are doomed to be just as creative and presumptuous as this one if not less.

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Addendum:

  • Iran is 1.6 Million Square KM in land area.
  • Beautancus in the map rn is 150,000 Square KM.

Iran IRL is 10 times larger in size. I would say that given Beautancus description of his nation, it would be fair to assume his country is not hyper-congested.

Therefore, it is reasonable to say that Beautancus has a significantly smaller population that 82.9 million. Halfing or even quartering the 82.9 million would not be unreasonable. If we accept this and factor the 10x difference as a whole in order to make the density:pop ratio match, we get a total poplation of 8.29 Million with 11% being 911,900

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35 minutes ago, Iverica said:

@Tagmatium Rules, anyone that wants. Likely those that might have some err--trouble accessing further shores. Likely @Gallambria if I might presume. Others may join any task force they wish.

Right now TF Haru looks like Seylos and Iverica for the most part. Salvia too if the carrier is being sent.

I assumed @Sancti Imperii Catholico was coming my way, as that made more sense in my mind for him to come from the south.

But I didn't ask him, so it was just in my head.

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6 hours ago, Tagmatium Rules said:

I assumed @Sancti Imperii Catholico was coming my way, as that made more sense in my mind for him to come from the south.

But I didn't ask him, so it was just in my head.

Which means through either the Chimera Transfer Station, to access the Northern area for me. Hmm. Alrighty, unless your going by boat eventually as well.

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39 minutes ago, Haruspex said:

Which means through either the Chimera Transfer Station, to access the Northern area for me. Hmm. Alrighty, unless your going by boat eventually as well.

I think the plan is that at least some of them will be transferred from MH to Tagmatium by train, and then on by boat to the "terra nullius" area(s), those who don't want permanent residency in Tagmatium. Which may be a good few, but that's a detail that will have to be hammered out.

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  • 3 weeks later...

This is seems a good a place to say this as any. I said it on Discord but others may miss it and it'll save confusion, both in this thread and in others.

I'm renaming the Tagmatine Red Cross. The name doesn't really fit, as it references an IRL organisation that doesn't exist on Eurth. It's also a pretty f*cking clunky name that doesn't really roll off the tongue.

After @Bulgenstaz and me bounced a few ideas around, I've gone for "Parabalanoi", a name taken from an early Christian group who nursed the sick and buried the dead. It kind of fits the role.

Consider this a retcon - the Tagmatine Red Cross has never been called as such and every previous reference should be read as "Parabalanoi" now. That is what I will be using from now on.

Sorry for the bother!

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3 hours ago, Haruspex said:

I've edited my conflict thread, to present ' Arhomanian Parabalanoi ' in every case I think I've mentioned 'red cross' instead. Further usage of the term shall be used to mean your medical service.

Cheers, man!

I didn't expect anyone to go back and edit things. I thought that would be too much of a pain in the arse.

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I’m not sure if I am too late, but Metztlitlalio would happily take in the refugee Christians if there are no other alternatives. Metztlitlalio is willing to accommodate 5,000-10,000 immediately, and if given 2-3 months to prepare, a maximum of 100,000. Anymore and the infrastructure will not be able to accommodate. Metztlitlalio has access to (although a bit shoddy) ocean liners that they can transport people with if all else fails.

 

Metztlitlalio already has a large Christian sect with their own autonomous region that is one of the richest areas of the nation, so although Metztlitlalio is a theocracy, Christianity is a protected faith and allowed to be freely practised within the autonomous region. Below I will put reasons for why Metztli may not be a great candidate for refugees, but also why Metztli is (suspiciously) welcoming:-

 

-Climate:

Metztlitlalio has a tropical climate, perhaps not the best climate for a steppe people, however the temperature range is somewhat similar. And the Yatotla Autonomous Kalpolli (Christian region) has. Mainly deforested their region, so tropical diseases are lessened in that region.

 

-Infrastructure

As most know, Metztlitlalio isn’t exactly a powerhouse and does require further industrialising, however the Christian region is the most industrialised outside of the capital territory, and I’m sure many would prefer to live in cramped apartments or rural villages then a Haruspex labour camp.

 

+Work Force

Metztli has a population of 20 million. It needs some form of influx of migrants if it ever is to truly industrialise as so few live in the country compared to it’s size. An injection of 10,000 of working age adults would do wonders, 100,000 could potentially kick start a new base of economics... or the infrastructure could collapse. It’s a 40/60 chance to be honest.  And hey, if all else fails. Metztlitlalio is in need for some cheap labour of it’s own in the agricultural and mining sectors 🙂.

 

+Diamond in the haystack

there is potential for some of the refugees to hold valuable information that Metztlitlalio can use for leverage, either politically (unlikely) or to introduce new ideas into the economy (likely). Which helps the above reason.
 

Of course not everyone in Metztlitlalio would agree to this, but hey, it leads to some very interesting plot lines in the future. Just in time for Metztlitlalio’s 2020 elections. As stated in the past, Metztlitlalio is a MIC/LIC nation, so it would probably be best for my nation to be a last resort “we have no other options”.

 

 

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  • 4 weeks later...

This may come too late to be of much use, but Batengdei has designated a decent area of land within the Kmoach Brisotdei province (the region of Batengdei with the largest percent of Christians) to accommodate our beleaguered friends, the Cussians. We have prepared multiple large-scale (though temporary) settlements, which are currently estimated to be able to house up to 18000 Cussians; we are also prepared to provide a system of benefits and economic assistance to promote long-term stability (including the development of permanent structures) in that region. Obviously these people would get be legally allowed to reside in Batengdei.

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7 hours ago, Batengdei said:

This may come too late to be of much use, but Batengdei has designated a decent area of land within the Kmoach Brisotdei province (the region of Batengdei with the largest percent of Christians) to accommodate our beleaguered friends, the Cussians. We have prepared multiple large-scale (though temporary) settlements, which are currently estimated to be able to house up to 18000 Cussians; we are also prepared to provide a system of benefits and economic assistance to promote long-term stability (including the development of permanent structures) in that region. Obviously these people would get be legally allowed to reside in Batengdei.

Excellent, excellent. (I in no way appeared to be doing a Palpatine while typing that.)

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So much haven't really stated what I would be doing during all this. Given a piece of legislation that has been part of every Ahranaian Constitution since a modern state has dictated what Ahrana does in times of peace or war. The Statute of Peace dictates what Ahrana can and cannot do in a conflict at the international level. So during this Ahrana will not being fully engaged in the conflict however, Ahrana will send Doctors, Scientists and anyother professionals that may be needed that may be need to create a new state or living system for the people. Ahrana will provide some groups of military personnel to the members of the ICEB to help bolster their numbers but not under the Ahranaian flag. No Ahranaian Flag will be on that island. Ahrana will send funds where it needs to be when it is possible. 

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I'd like to hop in on this roleplay, if you'd have me. Certainly no good Christian nation like Eulycea could ignore the plight of its fellows in a time like this. King Charles also more than ever needs to appear as a great humanitarian and liberator to his people, what with Republicans demanding his removal from politics. I would think he would be more than willing to find parliamentary approval and funding for the housing of as many as 50,000 refugees initially, with more in the future if need be.

Unfortunately, our hospital ship is currently on its way to deal with Ceris, so it won't be able to render assistance. But we could charter other means of transportation, and certainly the Royal Army's medical corps (along with private charities and the national healthcare service) could handle their medical needs.

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