More Conflict in the Middle East

[Tagmatium Rules]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/5173078.stm

Israel has launched raids and bombardments on Lebanon after Hezbollah captured a pair of Israeli soldiers so that they could use them to bargin for the release of Hezbollah prisoners from Israeli jails. However, Israel has placed the blame squarely on the shoulders of the Lebanese, and has attacked several bridges and roads in the country.

 

One of the more disheartening quotes that has come out of this situation is this:

Army Chief of Staff Lt-Gen Dan Halutz said the Israeli military would "turn back the clock in Lebanon by 20 years" if the soldiers were not returned.

Given the recent statements by the Iranian president about "wiping Israel off the map" and the wider situation of the Middle East and many Arab nations' views on Israel, I feel fairly unnerved by the whole situation.

 

Are we on the brink of a wider war in the Middle East?

Edited July 12, 2006 by Tagmatium Rules (see edit history)

[Emakera]

These guys DO love some bloodshed... hey, am i the only one who wanna place a bet on Israel invading the Sinai peninsula?

[Vocenae]

Of course, if this turns into a bigger war the U.S. will have to get involved because Israel is a source of interest for us and so on and so forth, and then make us even more hated in the eyes of everyone there.

 

It was a bad situation made worse.

[Emakera]

I?ve just looked into my glass ball.

 

Israel will probably get in a war against the arab world and Iran. The USA will intervene. As the laying old man says, "the enemy of our enemy is our friend", so North Korea might as well join the arabs, not on the war against Israel, but on the thrashing. If Russia keeps friendly toward Iran, it would be the perfect opportunity for taking revenge from the USA for helping Russia turn into the land of hookers and mafia. I hope I?m right about Russia on this one, i wanna watch the earth burn and my skin shed. WWIII for everyone.

[Accra Imperiale Dichia]

@Tag:

 

The 'wider war' you talk of has been brewing since the founding of Isreal in '48. I could go into detail here, but I think we understand this fairly well.

 

As for the current state: Isreal has been tinkering with the brink of war for years. Invading Gaza, Lebanon and Palestine, killing civilians and bombing infrastructure has been going on long enough to make the neighboring nations to Isreal seriously consider 'starting something Isreal can't finish'. I do believe there will be a major war in the middle east due to Isreal's reckless foreign military policies and actions as well as the arabs long standing hatred for anything they don't understand. I do not, however, believe this lebanon conflict will be the beginning of it (I may be wrong). I believe that Syria will begin the war AFTER Iran develops it's nukes.

 

This will get quite complicated: Iran will launch a strategic missile at Isreal, whether or not it successfully destroys anything has yet to be seen. In retaliation, either Isreal or the US will launch a counter strike against Iran, at which Syria will launch a ground offensive into Isreal. Iran would most likely attack Iraq (If the US is still there) or march threw Iraq to Syria to join the fight with Isreal.

 

Irseal has the better technology thanks to the USA giving them aid. This ensures that many arabs will die on Isreali soils. The USA will launch a two pronged attack on Syria, one from within Isreal, and one from either Iraq (if we are still there) or Turkey. If... no when... the US goes to war with Iran, rest assured that the rest of NATO will get involved, especially is nukes are thrown around. UK, France Germany and a fistfull of the rest of Eurpoe will send some kind of assisstance to the US led coalition.

 

This will make Russia reconsider having anything to do with Iran. If Russia decides to send material to Iran and Syria, they become anti-NATO and will be considered a 'strategic value' by US Air Force. Or, Russia may decide to abandon Iran and simply let them fall. The odds of Russia becoming actively involved in anything like this are extremly small, They MUST be smarter than that. If they do, we are all dead. I doubt this will happen.

 

North Korea's missle test failed horribly last week(?) when (correct me if I'm wrong) two of their seven test missles fell apart in the air and none of them went of successfully. However, Japan does consider PDRK (People's Democratic Republic of Korea (North)) launch of those missles a violation of their something (I forget the exact words) and are currently considering if striking PDRK's missile sites would violate their constitution which was laid down by the USA after WWII.

 

If Japan does strike PDRK, they will undoubtedly have full US backing. When PDRK attacks Japan in response, the USA will become entirely involved, as will China. This will tunr into the pacific theatre all over again. China will back PDRK and take Sotuh Korea and Japan, then US forces will show up and we will have a massive conflict in the orient. China does have nuclear weapons and they are tested and proven as a viable weapon... as does the USA, but we have a few more than they do... Heh heh.. Anyway, this is where the end of the world will occur.

 

There is a chance the UN might be able to convince China that siding with PDRK is a bad idea and they wont get involved. If this is true, we win. PDRK can't stand a full scale war for long. Within a few months they will collapse and the North Korean effort to joust US force from the region will fail and the good guys win...

 

I wish this forum had spell check...

[Tamurin]

Come on, guys, let's be realistic about this.

 

The arab nations are not a united front. They never were and they surely are not right now. There's always a lot of talk among the arab nations, but they don't support the palestinians - they never really have. Jordan, for instance, expelled the palestinians into the West Bank when they made too much trouble. Egypt and Turkey have peace treaties with Israel which hold. Saudi Arabia never intervened in such wars and all other arab states don't have the will or the power to do so. Iran doesn't enter wars against Israel directly, they like to do that with their "puppets" Hamas and Hisbollah.

 

The only nation willing to enter a war against Israel would be Syria, but they don't stand a chance. Plus, they'd have to attack through the golan heights which would be mass suicide. Lebanon is a Syria puppet and too weak to deal with the Hisbollah - how should they be able to deal with Israel?

 

The US, Russia or Europeans never entered wars in the Middle East - they liked to stay behind the scenes and provide they favorite sides with weapons. North Korea has its own issues and its army hasn't the slightest capability of being deployed outside of North Korea.

 

What does this tell us?

- Israel will (again) win the engagement against the palestinians. When they have their captured soldier, they'll withdraw from Gaza. The palestinians will resume firing Katyusha-rockets against Israel and resume fighting amongst themselves.

- Israel will (again) win the engagement against the Hisbollah and Lebanon. When they have their captured soldiers, they'll withdraw. The Hisbollah will resume firing Katyusha-rockets against Israel and resume controlling the southern part of Lebanon.

- The arab will be "furious" and "shocked" and blabla about what's happening, but they won't do anything about it, especially Syria.

- The US will back Israel, the EU will try to negotiate, Russia will be neutral, China won't care and North Korea will test fire its own missiles not caring about anyone anywhere.

- In a couple of weeks everything will be over.

 

What we DO know now is the following:

- Israel is not backing down and protecting its citizens and soldiers with everything they have.

- There is no united arab front.

- There is no central authority of the palestinians.

 

What we WILL know in a couple of weeks:

- How far Israel is willing to go

- How many people died because of the stupid capture of an israeli soldier by some stupid terrorists

[Pirilao]

 

There is no question in my mind that this conflict will be (has it has been)going for decades to come.

Israel have no intentions of stop any agretion towards Palestine and any oportunity tu "justify" the aggretion is welcome by their goverment. The abuse of power towards the Palestine people is desgasting!

In the other side of the coin, the Palestinian people will no stop blowing them selves up as for decades this is what they found, as the ultimate option to make their "voice heard".

How can we spect to have a peaceful solution when the chillout of Palestine do not know anything else but miserry, tragedy and blood runing out at their door step? how the mentality will change when from early edge they see as the only option to stop the authoritarian and desgasting rule of the israelies?

 

The international community has done less than nothing.

The US, the protector of Israel use no more then burocracy and the EU is not far behind.

 

Palestine should be for the Palestines and only men with open mind and peaceful vision will be able to get in to a moving egreement.

 

Now Gaza is at the border of starvation. more inocent kids, women and men will die. Why? to proof "who is the Daddy?"

Terrorist group as hamas defenetly have to be erradicate, not promoted and that is exactly what Israel is investing to.

Thousants of prisioners have been kidnaped from their homes and never brought to trial violating all human rights. Israel defenetly learn good from the US, or, it wast the all way arroud?

Blood will bring more blood.

I see no other solution but to have the international community stoping military suplies to Israel (but who wants to stope the bussines!!?) and Hamas liding Goverment, should laid down all attacs and control their jihad activits and let their kids build the country for a peaceful future.

[Orioni]

If I were you I'd fill the petrol tank of my car before prices skyrocket (yet again).

[Tamurin]

This is one of the times where living in Germany is really good - gas prices are so high that some "war cents" don't change that much...

 

(Is this really good? I don't know... )

[Accra Imperiale Dichia]

If only it could be that simple: "stop handing them guns and they'll quit using them". That might work if Isreal wasn't capable of producing them on their own. Sure they wouldn't have as many, but they would still be making them. And the level of corruption in the russian military and Syrian aid to palestine will prove impossible to stop without direct action.

[Accra Imperiale Dichia]

This is one of the times where living in Germany is really good - gas prices are so high that some "war cents" don't change that much...

 

(Is this really good? I don't know... )

War cents? is that like war bonds or something?

[Orioni]

If only it could be that simple: "stop handing them guns and they'll quit using them". That might work if Isreal wasn't capable of producing them on their own.

You're right. Not many of you may know this, but Isra?l is a regional superpower in the Middle East. It's a small country, but it has the most advanced military in the region. Sure Saudi-Arabia, Egypt and Iran are big countries, bit size is not everything. (Canada and the USA are about the same size, but we all know who would win that fight.)

 

Everyone knows the only way to end this conflict is to sort the Palestinian Problem. (And it would solve a whole lot of other problems.)

[Vocenae]

It would just happen another year down the road. The entire region is a hopeless case, too many religions and fanatics, corrupt dictatorships and people who want to take advantage of the instability of the region. That's not even mentioning outside influence fron numerous nations and what I suspect are corporations.

[Tamurin]

@Accra:

 

No, "war cents" are the couple of cents you pay more for fuel...when you already pay 1,35 Euros for one liter, five or ten cents more aren't that much...(Americans: Remember, 1,35 Euros for one liter, not one gallon!).

 

@Topic:

 

The current problem is that there is no central authority within the palestinians.

We have:

- President Abbas and the Fatah (one faction), willing to coexist with Israel

- The Hamas-government (another faction), unwilling to coexist with Israel, using terrorist actions

- The Islamic Dschihad, the Al-Aksa-brigades and several other terrorist groups (each one a faction); each has different goals and different ways of doing things

 

All of them are armed and fighting among each other. A couple of weeks ago the palestinians were just one step away from full-scale civil war between the Fatah and the Hamas.

 

I mean, if you're the israeli government, what can you do when your soldier is captured and you get these statements:

Abbas/Fatah: Against the capture of the soldier, but unable to do something

Hamas: Legitimate act, support it and are unwilling to do something against it

Terrorist groups: Party!

[Emakera]

The US, Russia or Europeans never entered wars in the Middle East - they liked to stay behind the scenes and provide they favorite sides with weapons.

 

*pulls a world map*

 

Let?s start by what i can remember.

 

Afghanistan: Invaded by Russia in late 70s, invaded by America in 2k3.

Iraq: Invaded by America some years ago.

 

Ok, they?re only two times, but that?s not exactly "never".

 

And c?mon, i just love worst-case-scenarios

[Tamurin]

And c?mon, i just love worst-case-scenarios

 

I noticed...

 

OK, the term "Middle East" isn't precise enough. In Germany we use the term "Naher Osten" ("Near East") for the arab region including Israel, "Mittlerer Osten" ("Middle East") is for the whole islamic region. I use "Middle East" because I noticed that nobody uses "Near East"...

 

Well, in wars involving Israel the West and the East never intervened directly. The US and the Europeans are backing Israel with weapons and support, because they're the only democracy there. Europe also tries to assist in negotiations and the Russians are selling weapons to whoever buys them. In "cold war" terms you could say that this is a classic "proxy war" with Israel as the western proxy and the arab nations (or to be more precise: palestinians, Lebanon and Syria) as russian proxies.

 

Of course there were interventions in Afghanistan, but that had nothing to do with Israel. I only meant israel-related conflicts.

[Akiiryu]

(Canada and the USA are about the same size, but we all know who would win that fight.)

 

Yeah, Canada. Have you seen a pissed off battle beaver with a hockey stick? Howsabout an annoyed military moose or a polaris polar bear...?

[Ide Jima]

These guys DO love some bloodshed... hey, am i the only one who wanna place a bet on Israel invading the Sinai peninsula?

They can try to invade the Sinai. They're forgetting that many of their neighbors have militaries which have come a long way since the Yom Kippur war. Egypt is probably the best example, it uses F-16s, Apaches, M1A1 tanks and M109 howitzers.

 

Israel may be powerful, but if they pick a fight with too many of their neighbors at once they may find themselves in a spot of trouble. Syria are probably going to get quite pissed off too, given that they just withdrew from Lebanon and now Israel are about to invade.

[Tagmatium Rules]

Afghanistan: Invaded by Russia in late 70s, invaded by America in 2k3.

Iraq: Invaded by America some years ago.

Wasn't Afghanistan late 2001?

 

The invasion was also supported by a wide coalition of nations and was much more justified than Iraq, as there was evidence that Afghanistan was harbouring Osma bin Laden. Iraq was just finishing of Daddy's argument, plus weapons of mass destruction almost totally fabricated. The whole "45 minutes" thing fed to the British public by the Labour government, although I'm sure the other parties, had they been in power, would have done the same thing.

 

Admittedly, Saddam's regime was a noxious thing, but they were in many cases better off before than after. The Yank soldiers should've just chucked a grenade down the hole when they found him. I'm sure they could have manufactured a plausible excuse, and not many would have wept for his passing.

[Vocenae]

Ah, and now the journalists are under fire...

[Mongol-Swedes]

Israel has a tendency to shoot/obliterate camera-toting individuals. I suspect they don't much like publicizing their armed forces as much as we do...

[Vocenae]

Even war has its own set of rules to follow.

[Tamurin]

Don't forget: It's quite easy for a terrorist team to disguise themselves as journalists. That way they're able to get wherever they want.

 

I don't think it should say "Even war has rules", but "Even journalists have to follow rules". A war journalist knows where he's going and that it's dangerous there. Reckless behaviour isn't the trait that safes your life.

 

Don't misunderstand me: I don't support the shooting of journalists and if this was done on purpose the shooters should be punished properly. But too often journalists think that they're above the things that they're shooting on camera and that they don't have to obey to any rules or orders.

[Ide Jima]

I don't support the shooting of journalists

I do, depending on what newspaper/ TV station they work for.

[Mongol-Swedes]

Considering they get paid more than 99% of the fighters, not to mention the lifestyles of many Western journalists, and the fact that they can generally get a PSD (personal security detachment), they do tend to get all VIP-ish in their heads...hopefully incidents like this recent one serve as a wake-up call.