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Koku
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sweatdrop.gifGlobal warming risk 'much higher'

By Richard Black

Environment Correspondent, BBC News website

Global temperatures will rise further in the future than previous studies have indicated, according to new research from two scientific teams.

 

They both used historical records to calculate the likely amplification of warming as higher temperatures induce release of CO2 from ecosystems.

They both conclude that current estimates of warming are too low, by anything up to 75%.

Their conclusion is backed up by a new report from the Australian government.

The Australian Greenhouse Office says current estimates of temperature rise are "being challenged" by new research.

 

Heightened sensitivity

The latest evidence comes in two papers to be published in the scientific journal Geophysical Research Letters.

They challenge the consensus view of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the global body charged with collating and analysing climate science.

 

It predicts that the global average temperature would rise by between 1.5C and 4.5C if human activities were to double the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere.

That figure, known as the climate sensitivity, results from a combination of two factors:

the direct impact of rising CO2 on the greenhouse effect

various "feedback" mechanisms which amplify the rate of warming, such as changes in the Earth's reflection of sunlight as ice melts

The new research adds a third component, by calculating the likely contribution of carbon dioxide released from natural ecosystems such as soil as temperatures rise.

This would add to the CO2 produced through human activities, raising temperatures still further.

.........

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/5006970.stm

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I believe that the Earth is getting warmer overall, but it is doing it in such a chaotic way that makes it difficult to predict and take measurements.

 

For example, we had the warmest January ever recorded in Ohio this year, and ever since then, we have had below normal temperatures almost every day. We just had a frost warning and it is almost summer! It does not seem like it is "warming" here, but I bet it is somewhere else...

 

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Oddly enough, this news bit popped up a few days ago...

 

Ozone hole will be fixed by 2050

 

Then again, my better half (from Germany) tells me that her sister, who lives there (Bavaria), is experiencing extremely strange weather. Warm temperatures in the winter (60 F), and snow in April. A lot of rain, and no real weather pattern during the last few years.

 

Up here, in Seattle, we just get more rain (than usual). Dancing_in_the_Rain_by_everbloom.gif

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The results seem me realistic although preoccupying , and how much less

shares if to make not to exceed this more difficult increase of two

degrees go to be .

Portugal, as other countries, must start to planear already measured

of adaptation to the effect of the climatic alterations I advise the Portuguese authorities to be intent to the reduction of the pollutant emissions, a measure

necessary to invert the trend of superheating and for the fulfilment

of the Protocol of Quioto.

But he has measured urgent of adaptation that has to start to be

taken , as example agriculture, where she is necessary to start to inform the populations on "the danger that come there" and as to try to skirt them.

On the other hand, "these measures must start to be gliding for the

coast, where the erosion will be aggravated by the alterations of the

climate, for agriculture, h?dricos forests, health human being and

resources.

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Global warming is a big thing over here. 5 years ago the town i live in ( the warmest town in the UK) had loads of snow which settled within a few hours. This had been the case in previous years. Since then however little or no snow has settled in the Winter. Weather patterns are changing. In early spring of this year we were getting eary summer temperatures when usully its snowing or raining. The situation has become worse due to a lack of rain. A drought order is being issued where playing fields won't be watered, public swimming pools won't be filled, car owners can only clean the windows but nothing else. So around here global warming is a big thing

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Yeah , i agree with Londim, global warming is a major issue in Britain. I live in london and yes the weather has been so unpredictable ( more than usual wink.gif , yeah i know i know, english weather) last month we had tempretures of 5 degrees c and now we had tempretures of 28 degrees c in just a period of 3-4 weeks. Its shocking! a 23c change in a matter of days. literally. Theres a hose pipe ban, and britain has had its driest drought in 50 years.

 

However i am most worried about places such as switzerland which are expected to flood this year like last year (its a shame, its such a nice place cool.gif ) and also portugal and spain which are expected to become desert like over the next 20 - 30 years and have extremely hot summers and winters.

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The whole idea of a drought is utter bollocks, made by the water suppliers to charge higher prices.

 

That may smack of a conspiracy theory, but I think it is true. Admittedly, the poor state of our water system may not have been a concious decision by the Water Suppliers, more a result of years of poor maintainence and lack of investment. But the result is that the water companies are able to charge higher prices for something that only on appearances is in short supply.

 

A third of the water that is sent from a reservoir is lost on the way to your homes. This is due to the reasons I stated above. So, instead of the water companies investing a large amout of money into re-fitting the system and pipe technology, they just whack up the prices they charge to use the water. They don't care about droughts, hose-pipe bans or any of that, just the amount of profits they see at the end of each financial year.

 

How could we possibly be having a shortage of water if the River Ouze in York can burst its banks and flood the city? It's poor disturbution and Capitalism in action, nothing else. Why put money into the future when you can increase profits now? The north is having some of the heaviest rainfall in years, but now talk is extending to Britain importing water from other countries, presumably so that the water companies can rinse us for as much money as they can.

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This is just to back up ur point really.....

 

More than 3.5 billion litres of water were lost daily through broken and leaking pipes in England and Wales last year, according to Ofwat.

 

That's more than a fifth of the 15 billion litres supplied by the UK water system each day and is more than the entire amount of bottled water drunk by Britons in a year.

 

Kinda shocking.......

 

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I understand the problem of water leakage in our country. But i don't think it is the company's fault. Hasn't there always been a bit of leakage anyway and the lack of rain highlighted it even more. I think other people and just using the drought as an excuse to have a go at these companies

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Yep, there always has been leakage. But the companies take ages to sort it out, and are generally very poor on the upkeep of the pipe system and maintainence of this system. A lot of the problems can be squarely laid at their door, and I think they are going to use this water shortage to their advantage, charging higher prices as water is seen to be in short supply. This is the problem of having private companies running such a vital resource, such as water, as by and large profits will come before anything else, including water supply to the rest of us. I bet them and their share-holders couldn't give a toss about how much water costs in Bristol or in any other part of the country, so long as they see the net worth of their bank accounts rise.

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....This is the problem of having private companies running such a vital resource, such as water, as by and large profits will come before anything else, including water supply to the rest of us. ...

Yet, my government still push for 'privatizations' ... sad.gif

 

About the weather here, "It's turbulent!" ; warmer summer with heat waves, raining in mid-summer, early rainy season, unusual lots of Typhoons, etc.

 

I'd say that the environment in future decades would be so harsh.. Human can adjust / adapt with intellect, but unfortunate for species those can't catch up with today 'natural selection' (tampered by man) .. ohmy.gif

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Global warming IS a reality. The only thing that hasn't be proven is whether if Global Warming has really been generated and fuelled by human activites. Given the present data and correlated components, coincidences seem too great to be ignored, though.

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Tempretures in london are now hotter than those of malta, rome, barcelona, lisbon, majorca... i feel sick...

 

user posted image

In relation the temperatures in Portugal, Lisbon never is the city hottest.

Normally the cities of the Alentejo (Beja, Elvas and ?vora) are hottest.

 

pirilao.gif

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Europe swelters in third week of heatwave

 

Europe is now in the third week of a heatwave and the consequences are being felt everywhere. The water level in the Elbe in Germany has dropped by a metre in a week. At just 89cm deep, it is too shallow for goods to be transported and, if it falls another 9cm, then pleasure steamers will have to stop too.

 

Harbour chief Detlef Butow said that many of his clients are having to find other more expensive ways of transporting their merchandise. Fish farmers are also feeling the pinch. They are having to sell their stocks in a hurry as the heat prevents oxygen from being released into the water, a situation they say is financially disasterous.

 

Poland is experiencing a prolonged drought as well as soaring temperatures. Farmers fear they will lose up to 40 per cent of this year's cereal crop. In Britain, farmers have already begun harvesting their wheat fields. Half of France is on special alert because of the heat. Around 30 people have died due to the hot weather. In 2003 some 15,000 lost their lives in the heatwave.

 

There is no immediate respite in sight, according to weather forecaster Patrick Galois: "Tuesday and Wednesday will see temperatures of around 36 degrees in the north and up to 38 in the south. Then, at the end of the week, we expect a drop in temperature." In Spain, three builders have died in the heat and young people have also been among the victims. But the rising mercury is not the only reason why it feels like an oven.

 

Agusti Jansa of the Balearic Islands weather service explained: "In an area with a temperature of 36 degrees and a humidity factor of 50 per cent, it feels as though it's 42 degrees. Whereas in Madrid, which is much drier, 36 degrees doesn't feel as hot." Among the most vulnerable in the heat are the elderly. The majority of those who died in 2003 were old people, who became severely dehydrated. To prevent a repeat of the tragedy, they are being advised to drink at least two litres of water a day.

 

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I remember the hottest day when I was a kid was 32c. Now, it's usually 40c in summer here... Luckily, we yet don't have 'heat wave'...

I think the world nowadays is the world that people produce more heat than ever... 1-no.gif

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Unexpectedly huge hurricanes like Katrina...and a political regime that really don't give a damn.

 

Maybe just once we could have, say, a tidal wave hit D.C. Ah, but then they would just relocate to NORAD or Mount Washington, or Air Force One maybe? Nah, probably scuttle back to Crawford, TX.

 

However, far be it from me to wish that kind of suffering upon others. New Orleans (my hometown, by the way) is still devastated. And when people come back and try to rebuild, they meet the private guns of mercenaries.

 

Global warming is having a much larger impact than just the environment.

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Uh, global warming? I'm like, totally against.

 

It's winter down here. And it was hot 'till some days ago. That's great for those angsty kids who want an excuse to say "These humans... they don't respect their own planet, death blah blah." Gotta love the third person of the plural.

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sweatdrop.gif

 

Eh, I believe the world is warming. I don't think it is moving as fast as we are led to believe. Much of it is scare tactics to get us off of things that are bad for the environment, which is good, but I don't like the way people have to doomsday scare people into doing what is right.

 

As for hot.. seemed hot this year. But we were actually hotter last year here and the record was set a while ago for high temperature.

 

I think it is messing with the seasons more than anything. Winter has been really weird lately. We have Biting COLD one month, well below norms, then it will be a record warm month the next month. Overall, the cold lasts longer into spring than it should, and the summer warm has been going all the way into the late fall too. It's just weird.

 

Hate to be the weatherman

 

1-no.gif

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  • 2 weeks later...
Let's ask Meteorola.. Dancing_in_the_Rain_by_everbloom.gif

Yea... We missed him, aren't we?

Wonder if he'll ever pay a visit sometime.... mellow.gif

 

Top scientist's fears for climate

By Roger Harrabin

BBC environment analyst

 

One of America's top scientists has said that the world has already entered a state of dangerous climate change.

In his first broadcast interview as president of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, John Holdren told the BBC that the climate was changing much faster than predicted.

....

"We are experiencing dangerous human disruption of the global climate and we're going to experience more," Professor Holdren said.

 

He emphasised the seriousness of the melting Greenland ice cap, saying that without drastic action the world would experience more heatwaves, wild fires and floods.

......

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/5303574.stm

 

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